What If?

As bad as losses from catastrophic hurricanes have been in recent years, the damage could have been much worse if some of the storms had taken slightly different tracks. Computer modeling can estimate the potential losses from a storm of a given intensity making landfall at a particular location and taking a particular track. The models consider the amount and type of property at each location and the damage that winds of a certain intensity can inflict.

The modeling firm Applied Insurance Research, Inc. (AIR) produced the following estimates for this website section.

In 1999, Hurricane Bret struck an area of the Texas coast south of Corpus Christi, causing about $30 million in losses. AIR estimates that if such a storm were to make landfall today in Galveston — about 225 miles north of where Bret actually hit — the potential losses would be more than $11 billion. That figure would make the storm second only to Hurricane Andrew in insured losses — even after adjusting for inflation, population growth, and changes in the amount of property per person.

AIR estimates that if a storm like Hurricane Andrew were to strike today in downtown Miami — just 25 miles from where Andrew struck in 1992, losses could exceed $50 billion — more than twice the losses (adjusted for changes in prices, population, and wealth) Andrew actually caused.

And in 1985, a hurricane named Gloria passed over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, as a category 3 storm. It then headed up the coast, making landfall in Long Island, New York, as a category 2 storm. Gloria caused $419 million in losses. AIR estimates that if a similar hurricane were to occur today, taking a course slightly west of Gloria's actual track — touching North Carolina and New Jersey and making final landfall in Brooklyn, New York — losses could exceed $16 billion. AIR also estimates that if a stronger hurricane were to occur today, taking Gloria's actual track, and making landfall in Long Island as a category 4 storm, it could cause more than $25 billion in losses. And if that stronger hurricane were to take the modified track and make landfall in Brooklyn as a category 4 storm, losses could reach nearly $39 billion.